BTC and XRP – Downtrend indicated

BTC/USD

From last Monday the price of Bitcoin increased by 22.56% as it came up from $9867 measured to it’s highest point on Sunday at $12093 at its highest point, but since then made a decrease of 12.74% as it fell to $10542 at its lowest spike on the same day. From there the price has quickly snapped back above $11000 and after another retest started making a slight recovery coming to $11427 made at its highest yesterday. At the moment the price is hovering slightly lower at $11233 and is in a downward trajectory.

Looking at the 15 min chart, we can see that on Sunday a sharp impulsive decrease was made with the price falling through all the support levels previously broken on the move to the upside out of which the most significant one was the uptrend resistance which is the upper level from the unconfirmed ascending channel in which the price was ranging from the 7th of May.

But it managed to pull back up above it as it entered the buyer’s territory and has experienced a recovery since. Considering the amount of decrease seen and the impulsiveness behind the move made on Sunday the currently seen recovery is most likely corrective ina nature, especially as it struggled to continue moving past the $11420 area where a minor horizontal resistance level is.

This is why from here I would be expecting another five-wave move to the downside which appears that could have already started after a three-wave corrective recovery has been made. If this is true then we could either be seeing the continuation of the corrective structure from a higher degree count or the start of the downtrend altogether, but in either way I would be expecting to see a breakout to the downside inside the territory of the ascending range from the 7th of May and a retest of the medial trendline (interrupted black bold) in which case we are to see the price of Bitcoin slightly above $10300.

XRP/USD

From Sundays high at $0.325 the price of Ripple has spiked down to $0.2416 at its lowest point which was a decrease of 25.73% but managed to snap back above $0.277 where the 15 min candle closed. After that, a lower low was made to the $0.275 area but soon after a recovery has started with the price moving back up to $0.32 making up the gains made until Sundays descending movement.

At the moment the price is being traded at $0.309 as it started decreasing again after a third lower high was made, forming the resistance level from the triangle structure in which it is correcting since Sunday. But it made a retest of the local horizontal support level and found support there which is why we are seeing a bounce at the moment and a short-term minor upside move is expected from here.

This upside move will most likely end as another retest of the descending resistance level from the triangle but could also end as a fakeout before the price starts impulsively decreasing from there. This downward move would be expected as a downtrend continuation from Sunday’s first impulse which served as an early indication that the trend is shifting but another indication is served from the invalidated impulse to the upside made after which could have been the 1st wave out of the next five-wave move to the upside but the 3rd wave being the shortest implies that the structure is corrective in nature instead.

The next impulse to the downside would be expected to retest the horizontal support at $0.274 where the price has found support yesterday but if its the 3rd wave from the higher degree five-wave move to the downside it will continue pushing the price significantly lower.

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