USD Trade or Fade, AUD/USD, GBP/USD

US Dollar Talking Points:

US Dollar Bulls Push in November

The bullish November theme in the US Dollar has continued as DXY has pushed right back into a zone of key resistance that runs from 98.33-98.50. This was the same zone that held the yearly highs in April and May of this year. Buyers were eventually able to pose a topside break through the late-portion of this summer but bulls were unable to hold the move, leading in to the rising wedge formation that was looked at in the Q4 Technical Forecast for the US Dollar. October brought a strong theme of weakness that ran for pretty much the entirety of the month as USD set a fresh two-month-low on the first trading day of November.

Since then, however, its been a far different scenario as buyers have come back to the table to retrace 50% of last month’s sell-off, with price action finding resistance in this confluent zone on the DXY chart.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

AUD/USD: Trendline Reaction, Can Sellers Continue to Push?

On the long side of the US Dollar, AUD/USD remains compelling. With last month’s USD sell-off, AUD/USD lifted all the way from an October low below the .6700 level to a key level of resistance around the .6900 handle. As USD-strength has come back in November, that bearish trendline reaction has hastened, and this keeps the door open for short-side strategies in the pair; particularly for traders that want to look for a deeper move of strength in the US Dollar. Next stops of support could be sought around the .6809 swing low followed by a zone of prior support around the .6750 psychological level. After that, the door is open to a re-test of the .6700 support that currently marks decade-lows in AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

audusd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; AUDUSD on Tradingview

For USD-Weakness, GBP/USD

On the short-side of the US Dollar, GBP/USD remains compelling. The pair pushed up to the 1.3000 level during the month of October as both USD-weakness and Sterling-strength ruled the month. And after testing below 1.2000 in early-September this amounts to a rather outsized move in a relatively short period of time.

As looked at in this week’s forecast, GBP/USD still has yet to put in bullish cues as pullback potential remains. A key zone of confluent support lurks below around the 1.2700 area and buyers have stepped-in ahead of a re-test there. But – follow-through support is showing at the 23.6% retracement of last month’s bullish breakout. A continued hold here, combined with a test above the 1.2900 resistance area gives a fresh series of higher-highs and higher-lows, which can re-open the door for bullish strategies looking for a move back towards the 1.3000 handle.

GBP/USD Two-Hour Price Chart

gbpusd gbp/usd two hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; GBPUSD on Tradingview

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

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